💰 How I used maths to beat the bookies | 1843

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Anyone with a computer and the motor skills to mail off a cashiers check overseas, can bet with his own Bookie, right in the convenience of his own bedroom.
No problem betting, just click here, and click there, and wait for the results.
My cat Charlie could probably do it.
I'd do the mailing.
But it's not the set up or the betting that's the tough part.
WINNING, that's the problem.
Legal or not, we'll find a way to bet on sports.
Which 'side' will win.
Betting which team will beat the spread is the most popular, but not the most profitable.
Overs and Unders is the smarter bet.
And you don't have to agonize over who will win.
Why bet the Overs and Unders?
Because it's the easiest way to make money.
The easiest way, once you know how.
Read on, I'll show you.
Add up the scores to get the total.
Bookies post a "total" and you make your pick.
Will the total score go Over or Under the posted total.
How easy can it be?
But betters torture themselves, bent over sport sections, over analyzing not only team trends, but injury reports, and game day weather forecasts.
Then they wonder why the constant migraine?
How will the snow effect the wide receivers?
A winning record but they almost lost last week?
Will his recent heart transplant effect his throwing arm?
Plus any other implausibilities that pop into their heads.
And while they're gulping Excedrin, the Bookies have the same stats on their computers.
Comes down to you and me vs the Bookie.
Many bettors are fixated on the point spread.
Sure, it's more fun, who will win, did they beat the spread?
Cool talk to Tweet about.
What do you mean you don't care who wins?
Where's the excitement in that?
The excitement my friend is showing off your Platinum bank account to your loser friends.
If you're serious about winning money betting football, bet the Over and Unders.
And only the Overs and Unders.
Here's how it's done.
Okay, most will first think Over.
Thy have Acton Jackson Syndrome AJS.
It's human nature to want the spectacular, ally-oop, hail Mary's.
We want points to best way to win at sports gambling scored.
To see a full back grind out 2.
That's what makes us tun over burning cars, and gets us the ticker tape parades.
My mom went to maybe 5 baseball games her whole life.
My click at this page took her to a Dodger game, and when they got back I asked her how it was.
Sandy Koufax had pitched a no hitter.
To her it was.
Fans want big scores.
So they tend to bet the Overs.
Caveat: Exotic parlays and teasers.
Forced to pick more than one game, drastically decreases your odds.
link bets, with big payoffs.
A few bucks left, and you're scratching to get back to even.
One last big win.
Serious betters look at parleys and teasers, as what they are, sucker bets.
Which team will kick best way to win at sports gambling first on-side kick?
How long will it take to sing the national anthem?
Which half time performer will suffer the next wardrobe malfunction?
DO NOT become a sucker, and bet these 'trap bets.
Concentrate on Overs and Unders.
And they bet WITH the Bookie.
That means they bet AGAINST the trend.
In a match best way to win at sports gambling between two hot defensive teams, each lacking much offense, Bookies know that "Joe Citizen"-- that's you and me-- will naturally figure no offense, great defense, low score.
So the Bookies who fix the total, make the total low, trapping you into a weak bet.
If the total needs adjusting, they tweak it up or down to their advantage.
That's how I'd do it.
Ever meet a poor Bookie?
https://allo-hebergeur.com/best/best-ways-to-win-at-slot-machines.html percentage of bettors are betting the Under, bookies will lower the total.
This will encourage betters to start taking the Over bet.
Bookies want the betting percentages to be about equal.
If the Over betting percentage is high, and there is a blowout, the bookies could lose their shirts.
Remember: "If it looks too good to be true it probably is!
And play WITH the bookie.
Now lets take a look at Sundays games.
The Total is 39.
Vikings vs Saints The total is 52.
Again the mind set: Favre and Brees, Passing, Big score.
If so, then the bookies would increase the total to encourage Under betting.
More of a balance.
Since this total has best way to win at sports gambling set for 2 days, the Bookies see a low scoring game.
So, Bet the Under.
With this kind of betting strategy, there's still plenty of action.
It usually gets exciting in the fourth quarter.
Betting the Unders, you'll probably be yelling, DEFENSE!
Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.
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Some of my friends would bet on the football, and I could see how it could add an extra dimension to watching the game.
That was all about to change.
I was going to take everything I had learnt about the mathematics of football and apply it to a real-life situation.
I was determined to use maths to beat the bookies.
I tested the models, refined them, and before too long I started to make money.
From a starting capital of £400, I made £108.
Gambling is not about picking winners.
The trick https://allo-hebergeur.com/best/best-gambling-city-simcity.html to know your probabilities better than the bookies Before I reveal the secrets of my betting model, we need to take a step back and get some of the basics straight.
To the uninitiated, the world of online betting can be somewhat overwhelming.
But a single account is not a good idea.
Most bookmakers calculate odds to guarantee a 5% profit on every bet you place.
This means best way to win at sports gambling if you were to place £100 on win, draw and lose in the same match, your £100 would become £95.
Unless you are a lot smarter than the bookmakers, your money will soon be gone.
Each bookmaker offers slightly different odds.
For some big matches it can be even lower.
This means that you only need to be about 2% better than the bookmaker in order to start to make a reliable long-term profit.
The second rule of gambling is to make sure you understand the relationship between odds and probabilities.
You need to do the odds-to-probability calculation every single time you place a bet.
Before you part with your money, assign probabilities to each potential outcome and compare these with the odds.
For many people this is a very difficult idea to get their head around.
Successful gamblers back just as many, if not more, losers than winners.
The trick is to know your probabilities better than the bookies.
In earlier seasons, NBC journalist Joe Prince-Wright had been particularly successful in predicting the Premier League end-of-season table.
The second model I tried was based on the Euro Club index, which assigns points based on the result of matches between teams.
Every time a team wins a match it gains index points and when it loses, the team loses index points.
This is similar to the Elo rating that is used in chess and other sports.
Many big matches ended in draws; backing them was the main source of my profits The third model was based on a concept called expected goals.
In this model, each shot a team makes is assigned a value based on historical data of shots taken in similar situations.
For example, a shot from inside the box typically has a 12% probability of going in, so it contributes 0.
Shots from outside the box have only a 3% chance of going in and contribute 0.
My model based on expected goals resulted in some spectacular gains early on in the season.
It predicted the decline of Chelsea, but it overrated Arsenal and Liverpool.
As the season progressed it became clear that a fourth and final model, which I called the odds bias model was the most reliable.
The bias can be explained by punters being attracted by the potential of big profits offered by large odds, and undervaluing the smaller gains to be had by betting on the favourite and bookmakers adjusting their odds accordingly.
I found a long-shot bias in earlier Premier League seasons.
For example, in 2014-15, putting money on Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City against teams lower in the table would have given a small but reliable week-on-week pay-off.
Not only did some bookmakers initially offer Leicester at 5,000 to 1 to win the league, but they were also undervalued in almost every match they played.
When Manchester United host Manchester City or Arsenal visit Liverpool, these matches see two very well matched teams play each other.
But punters like to see a win in one direction or the other and the bookmakers increase the odds for a draw.
This is a consistent bias over a number of Premier League seasons, and the 2015-16 season was no exception.
After that, my betting became more sporadic.
I placed a few bets when I had time, but I often forgot.
There is more to life than gambling.
It is, however, possible for me to assess how I would have done if I had continued to bet.
The website collates closing odds and results for the UK leagues.
It turns out that my model continued to hold its own throughout the season.
The rate of return for the odds bias model over the 2015-16 Premier League season was more than 200%.
Not bad at all in the current economic climate.
Lovisa Sumpter is a very talented individual.
She is an associate professor of mathematics education in Sweden, where we live, and a qualified yoga instructor.
She also has a much better record than her husband in football betting.
When she was still a student, Lovisa correctly predicted the outcome of every one of the 13 matches in the Swedish Stryktipset.
She would represent the typical punter.
I have to admit, I expected her to lose.
She was using a single bookmaker who had a 6% advantage per bet over her, while I had my system with multiple bookmakers.
How wrong I was.
At the end of our experiment Lovisa had won £17.
this web page tidy little profit on the £100 investment.
In fact, given that Lovisa cashed in her winnings after only four weeks, the rate of return on her investment was higher than mine.
But I do have to give her credit, and not just for the sake of harmony at home: she got the result and made some money.
What I learnt from my gambling experiment is that betting using mathematics is hard work.
It took me a fair bit valuable best online poker free play have time to develop the model of the Premier League.
For the English Premier League, the bias against draws between well-matched teams might be explained by the media hype building up to these games.
The newspapers carry stories strongly contrasting the two teams, and punters best way to win at sports gambling tempted to opt for one side or the other, neglecting the correct probability of a draw.
When I tested my model on the Championship and lower leagues, without placing bets, I found that best way to win at sports gambling between well-matched teams were not undervalued on betting sites.
To be sure of a reliable profit over various markets, new models need to be developed for each of them.
This is a full-time job.
There are many other jobs in mathematics and statistics that provide a much more stable income than gambling and require a much smaller starting capital.
International tournaments are very different from national leagues, because they attract a much wider range of betting fans.
This is very different from the long-shot bias found in the Premier League.
Why do the favourites tend to be overvalued in international tournaments?
Their money goes on the well-known footballing nations, so yours should go on their slightly lesser-known opponents.
However, extreme long shots, like Iceland, are still not worth the risk.
If you would rather back England, then you should wait to see if they get through the group stages where they are favourites.
Then £10 on England against Spain or Germany in the knockout stage should be worth the risk.